How Many People Don't Believe In Climate Change

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Climate Annotation · Jul 2, 2019

Americans Underestimate How Many Others in the U.S. Think Global Warming is Happening

Past Matthew Ballew, Abel Gustafson, Parrish Bergquist, Matthew Goldberg, Seth Rosenthal, John Kotcher, Edward Maibach and Anthony Leiserowitz

Americans Underestimate How Many Others in the U.S. Think Global Warming is Happening

Perceptions of what other people think and practise tin have a powerful influence on individuals' ain beliefs and deportment. For example, research on household energy conservation demonstrates that individuals who consume a large amount of energy tend to decrease their energy utilisation when they learn that their neighbors employ less energy, and when they are told their peers approve of lower energy usage.

However, people tend to misjudge what the beliefs and deportment of others actually are – a phenomenon known as pluralistic ignorance.

In our April 2019 national survey, we found that the American public underestimates how many other Americans think global warming is happening (i.eastward., they underestimate the social consensus on global warming). Americans on average estimate that only 54% of other Americans think global warming is happening, when in fact, 69% of Americans exercise.

Some subgroups of Americans, including liberal Democrats and those with higher levels of education, more accurately gauge national public opinion about global warming (although even they underestimate the actual pct). Conversely, other groups, such as conservative Republicans and people living in rural areas, are less authentic at estimating the opinions about global warming held past their swain Americans.

We likewise find that about one in five Americans (19%) say they "don't know" how many others in the U.Southward. call up global warming is happening. Liberal Democrats are the least probable, while conservative Republicans are the most likely, to say they don't know.

The figure below compares the climate change opinions of respondents who believe a majority of Americans think global warming is happening versus respondents who believe only a minority of Americans remember global warming is happening. Overall, people who believe a majority of Americans think global warming is happening are more likely to express pro-climate views and behaviors. For example, Americans who perceive a greater social consensus on global warming talk over global warming with their own friends and family more frequently than do those who perceive less social consensus.

These findings are consequent with inquiry that indicates that pluralistic ignorance almost climate change is a bulwark to discussion of the topic, because it leads to self-silencing. All the same, correcting this pluralistic ignorance and promoting the awareness that others are concerned about climatic change can increase people's own willingness to discuss it. Similarly, other research has shown that correcting misperceptions most the level of public support for climate policy tin can itself increase support for such policies.

This relationship between perceptions of others' views about climate change and ane'due south own behavior and attitudes suggests new approaches to climatic change communication. Helping the public sympathise that a majority of Americans already call back global warming is happening, remember it is a serious threat, and support climate policies can itself help build public agreement, acceptance, and support.

Methods

The data included in this report are based on the Apr 2019Climate Change in the American Heed survey—a nationally-representative assay of public opinion on climatic change in the United States conducted by the Yale Plan on Climatic change Communication and the George Mason University Centre for Climate Alter Advice. Using the Ipsos (formerly GfK) KnowledgePanel®, a representative online panel of U.South. adults (eighteen+), surveys were conducted March 29 to April eight, 2019 (N = 1,291). The margin of mistake for the general U.Southward. population estimate is +/- 3 pct points at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error for each subgroup is larger. All questionnaires were self-administered by respondents in a web-based surroundings. Information are weighted to marshal with U.S. Census parameters. For tabulation purposes, percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number. For more information on survey methods, delight review the April 2019 Climate change in the American Listen report.